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Statistics, Data Analysis and Decision Modeling and Student CD-ROM, 2/E
James R. Evans, University of Cincinnati
David L. Olson, Texas A & M University

ISBN-10: 0130783838
ISBN-13:  9780130783837

Publisher:  Prentice Hall
Copyright:  2003
Format:  Paper; 478 pp
Published:  08/06/2002

For the one semester (or briefer) course in business statistics and quantitative analysis in the MBA or Executive MBA program.

This text covers the basic concepts of business statistics, data analysis and management science integrated in a contemporary spreadsheet environment. The authors emphasize practical applications and business decision-making.

  • NEW - 3 New chapters increase the coverage of simulation and optimization—Chapter 8 provides coverage of Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball and its applications to risk analysis. Chapter 9 provides a basic introduction to concepts of dynamic simulation, all within a spreadsheet environment. Chapter 12 describes the use of Excel Solver and Premium Solver for solving linear, integer, and nonlinear optimization models.
  • NEW - Increased coverage of important statistical topics—Includes confidence intervals, hypothesis testing and regression analysis.
  • NEW - New data sets for illustrative examples and exercises and many new problems from a variety of disciplines.
  • NEW - Tracway, a realistic business scenario with a comprehensive database has been reworked into running cases found at the end of chapters.
  • NEW - Increased coverage of basic Excel skills.
  • NEW - New topics—Includes data tables and Pivot Tables and new sections on contingency tables, cross-tabulations, scoring models, AHP, and portfolio risk.
  • CD-Rom—The book emphasizes the use of Excel and Excel add-ins as tools to solve business problems and includes them on the CD. The add-ins featured are PHStat2 (statistical add-in), Crystal Ball (Monte Carlo simulation) TreePlan (Decision Tree add-in), Premium Solver (optimization add-in). Plus includes the data files for the examples and exercises.
  • Boxed Notes—Provide procedural details for using Excel and the add-ins.

    • Shows clearly the separation of the “how to” from the important content.

  • 3 New chapters increase the coverage of simulation and optimization—Chapter 8 provides coverage of Monte Carlo simulation with Crystal Ball and its applications to risk analysis. Chapter 9 provides a basic introduction to concepts of dynamic simulation, all within a spreadsheet environment. Chapter 12 describes the use of Excel Solver and Premium Solver for solving linear, integer, and nonlinear optimization models.
  • Increased coverage of important statistical topics—Includes confidence intervals, hypothesis testing and regression analysis.
  • New data sets for illustrative examples and exercises and many new problems from a variety of disciplines.
  • Tracway, a realistic business scenario with a comprehensive database has been reworked into running cases found at the end of chapters.
  • Increased coverage of basic Excel skills.
  • New topics—Includes data tables and Pivot Tables and new sections on contingency tables, cross-tabulations, scoring models, AHP, and portfolio risk.

(NOTE: Each chapter begins with an Introduction and includes Questions and Problems.)

1. Data and Business Decisions.

Statistical Thinking in Business. Data in the Business Environment. Sources and Types of Data. Populations and Samples. Decision Models. Using Microsoft Excel. Working with Data in Excel. Case: The Tracway Balanced Scorecard.



2. Displaying and Summarizing Data.

Displaying Data with Charts and Graphs. Contingency Tables and Cross-Tabulations. Descriptive Statistics. Measures of Dispersion. Calculations for Grouped Data. Coefficient of Variation. Measures of Shape. Excel's Descriptive Statistics Tool. Data Profiles and Proportions. Visual Display of Statistical Measures. Statistical Relationships. Case: Descriptive Statistical Analysis of Tracway Data.



3. Random Variables and Probability Distributions.

Basic Concepts. Random Variables. Probability Distributions. Expected Value and Variance of a Random Variable. Discrete Probability Distributions. Continuous Probability Distributions. Other Useful Distributions. Monte-Carlo Methods in Statistics. Sampling Distributions and Sampling Error. Case: Probability Modeling for Tracway Quality Measurements.



4. Sampling and Statistical Inference.

Statistical Sampling. Statistical Analysis of Sample Data. Estimation. Interval Estimates. Confidence Intervals for the Mean. Confidence Intervals for Proportions. Confidence Intervals and Sample Size. Additional Types of Confidence Intervals. Hypothesis Testing. One Sample Hypothesis Tests. Two-Sample Hypothesis Tests. ANOVA: Testing Differences of Several Means. Non Parametric Hypothesis Tests. Distribution Fitting: An Application of Hypothesis Testing. Case: Statistical Inference for Tracway.



5. Regression Analysis.

Simple Linear Regression. Measuring Variation About the Regression Line. Regression as Analysis of Variance. Assumptions of Regression Analysis. Application of Regression Analysis to Investment Risk. Multiple Linear Regression. Building Good Regression Models. Regression with Categorical Independent Variables. Regression Models with Nonlinear Terms. Case: Regression Analysis for Tracway.



6. Forecasting.

Qualitative and Judgmental Methods. Indicators and Indexes. Statistical Forecasting Models. Forecasting Models for Stationary Time Series. Forecasting Models with Linear Trends. Models for Time Series with Trend and Seasonal Components. CB Predictor. Regression Models. The Practice of Forecasting.



7. Statistical Quality Control.

The Role of Statistics and Data Analysis in Quality Control. Statistical Process Control. Analyzing Control Charts. Control Charts for Attributes. Statistical Issues in the Design of Control Charts. Process Capability Analysis. Case: Quality Control at Tracway. References.



8. Risk Analysis and Monte-Carlo Simulation.

Risk Analysis. Monte-Carlo Simulation with Crystal Ball. Additional Crystal Ball Modeling and Analysis Options. Applications of Monte-Carlo Simulation.



9. Systems Simulation Modeling and Analysis.

System Simulating Modeling Approaches. Simulating Inventory Systems Using Activity Scanning. Simulating Waiting Line Systems Using Process-Driven Models. Event-Driven Simulation Models. An Event-Driven Inventory Simulation Model. Entities and Attributes. Continuous Simulation Modeling. Case: Tracway Production/Inventory Planning. References.



10. Selection Models and Decision Analysis.

Decisions Involving a Single Alternative. Decisions Involving Non-Mutually Exclusive Alternatives. Decisions Involving Mutually Exclusive Alternatives. Decisions Involving Uncertainty. Case: A Tracway Decision Problem. References.



11. Optimization Modeling.

Constrained Optimization. Linear Optimization Models. Spreadsheet Implementation of Linear Programming Models. Integer Optimization Models. Nonlinear Optimization. Case: Distribution Center Location for Tracway.



12. Solving and Analyzing Optimization Models.

Using Spreadsheet Models for Optimization. Solving Linear Optimization Models. Solving Integer Optimization Models. Solving Nonlinear Optimization Models. Risk Analysis of Optimization Results. Combining Optimization and Simulation. Case: Distribution Center Location for Tracway.

  • 9780136066002
    Statistics, Data Analysis & Decision Modeling, 4/E
    Evans
    ©2010 | Prentice Hall | Paper; 592 pp | Instock
    ISBN-10: 0136066003 | ISBN-13: 9780136066002
    Brief Description

This concise text covers the basic concepts of business statistics, data analysis, and management science in a contemporary spreadsheet environment. The authors emphasize practical applications of the approaches to business decision making. Some of-the text highlights include:

  • Concise approach—This book integrates fundamental concepts of business statistics and decision models in twelve chapters. The authors take a practical, nonmathematical approach.
  • Practical applications—A comprehensive database using marketing, finance, and production data, is used throughout the text to give students hands-on experience in analyzing data for practical decisions.
  • Spreadsheet emphasis—The emphasis is on using spreadsheets for data analysis and decision modeling. The book features Excel and the Excel add-ins: PHStat, student version of Crystal Ball, and TreePlan.
About the CD-ROM

EVERY NEW COPY OF THIS TEXTBOOK IS PACKAGED WITH A CD-ROM CONTAINING SOFTWARE ESSENTIAL FOR THIS COURSE:

  • Premium Solver
  • Crystal Ball—Spreadsheet add-in for simulation and risk analysis
  • TreePlan—Used in chapter 8
  • PHStat2Spreadsheet add—in for statistics

This free CD-ROM also contains all of the Excel files required for many of the examples in this text.

This package contains:
•   Evans, Student CD, 2/E (2003)

Pearson Higher Education offers special pricing when you choose to package your text with other student resources. If you're interested in creating a cost-saving package for your students contact your Pearson Higher Education representative.

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